S&P Global released the flash estimate of the United States (US) S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Thursday, confirming a reading of 51.7 in May, matching the April outcome. Manufacturing output improved to 55.3 from the previous 54.5, also surpassing expectations of 54. Finally, the Services PMI resulted at 50.9, slightly below the 51 posted in April.
“Business activity continued to grow in May but at a reduced rate compared to that seen earlier in the year,” the report says. Also, “Divergences persisted in terms of the impact of the war by sector. Service sector growth remained especially sluggish and is on course for its weakest calendar quarter since late 2023 as new business inflows rose only modestly, albeit improving on the slight decline seen in April.”
“Manufacturing output, meanwhile, rose at the fastest rate for just over four years, the rate of growth accelerating from the already-robust pace seen in April. However, an accompanying marked influx of new orders for goods in part again reflected precautionary stock building by clients.”
This section below was published at 12:30 GMT as a preview to the S&P Global PMI’s release.
- The S&P Global flash PMIs for May are expected to show a modest expansion.
- The employment and inflation sub-indices continue to gain relevance in the current context.
- EUR/USD has little room to recover even if PMIs miss expectations.
S&P Global will release the May flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for most major economies, including the United States (US), on Thursday. These surveys of top private sector executives are seen as an early indicator of the country’s economic health.
Market participants anticipate that the Global Services PMI will print at 51, matching the April reading, while Global Manufacturing output is expected to print at 54, slightly below the previous month’s 54.5 reading. The Composite PMI, a combination of manufacturing and services data, stood at 51.7 in April.
S&P Global separately reports manufacturing activity and services activity through the Manufacturing PMI and the Services PMI. Additionally, they present a weighted combination of the two, the Composite PMI. Generally speaking, a reading of 50 or more indicates expansion, while readings below the threshold indicate contraction.
The report has two versions, a preliminary estimate and a final revision, which comes around two weeks later. These preliminary versions or flash estimates tend to have a broader impact on the US Dollar (USD).
What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?
Ahead of the announcement, the USD holds on to substantial weekly gains, with the latest inflation data pointing to upcoming interest rate hikes. Overheating inflation, driven by the war in the Middle East, has established a new framework for central banks. The Federal Reserve (Fed) was expected to cut interest rates before the Iran war started, but as the conflict drags on, speculative interest has lifted bets on the central bank moving in the opposite direction.
The anticipated figures are expected to show that economic expansion continues at a moderate pace, which will likely help maintain the USD on a bullish path. Still, investors will be looking for additional clues in the employment and inflation sub-readings, both of which hint at how the Fed may react when it meets in June. A scenario in which mounting price pressures couple with a tight labor market would further support the case of upcoming rate hikes.
Higher rates have two immediate consequences. One, they would generate political turmoil, given US President Donald Trump’s continued pressure for lower rates. Two, it will also translate into higher borrowing costs, which means companies would be less willing to invest, hence slowing growth.
In the case of better-than-anticipated figures, the scenario will be pretty much the same: a bullish Greenback, supported by solid local data. A miss in PMIs, and worse, any reading below the 50 threshold, could put the USD under selling pressure. Still, the slide could well be short-lived, as demand for the safe-haven Greenback and bets of Fed’s hike are unlikely to be affected by the S&P Global report.
When will the May flash US S&P Global PMIs will be released and how could they affect EUR/USD?
The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs reports will be released at 13:45 GMT on Thursday, and as previously noted, are expected to show that US business activity continued to expand in May.
Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “The EUR/USD pair struggles to recover above the 1.1600 mark, trading near a fresh multi-week low in the 1.1580 region. The USD pared its advance as Oil prices eased from weekly tops, hinting at reduced concerns about Middle East developments, but remains strong as the conflict seems far from over.”
Bednarik adds: “War headlines are likely to continue overshadowing macroeconomic releases, with the latest likely to have a temporary impact on price action. As for the EUR/USD pair, it is technically bearish. The daily chart shows that the Momentum indicator gains downward momentum below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator remains flat in oversold territory. At the same time, EUR/USD develops below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading south while providing dynamic resistance around 1.1620. Gains beyond it could open the door for an advance towards the 1.1660 area, where sellers are likely to return.”
Finally, Bednarik notes: “A downward extension below recent lows in the 1.1580 region could favor a test of the 1.1530 area, while further slides expose a long-term static support area around 1.1470.”